The Indian stock market is expected to begin Monday’s session on a cautious but steady note, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 likely to open flat to mildly positive on December 29. Early cues remain supportive, even as investors stay selective amid the absence of strong global triggers.
Market setup: What signals are pointing to
Trends from Gift Nifty, trading near the 26,100 mark, hint at a slightly upbeat opening for domestic equities. However, market participants may continue to tread carefully after Friday’s muted close, which came amid low volumes and mixed global sentiment.
On December 26, the Sensex slipped 367 points (0.43%) to end at 85,041.45, while the Nifty 50 fell 100 points (0.38%) to close at 26,042.30. Despite the dip, both indices managed to post marginal weekly gains, snapping recent losing streaks.
A week of consolidation, not weakness
The broader trend remains one of consolidation rather than reversal. According to market analysts, indices have been hovering near lifetime highs, with selling pressure limited to select heavyweight stocks.
Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research at Religare Broking, noted that the market has been moving in a narrow range amid thin holiday volumes. “The Nifty tested the 26,000 zone before stabilising. Sectoral performance largely mirrored the benchmark, with IT, financials and auto stocks dragging, while broader markets stayed largely flat,” he said.
Sensex outlook: Key levels to watch
The Sensex continues to trade just below its record highs, indicating resilience rather than exhaustion. Analysts see strong support emerging in the 84,800–84,500 zone, suggesting institutional buying on dips.
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A sustained move above the 85,500–85,800 range could open the door for an upside toward 86,000–86,500 in the coming weeks. Until then, the index may continue to consolidate with a positive bias.
Nifty 50: Support intact, upside capped for now
From a technical standpoint, the Nifty 50 remains comfortably placed above its 20-day exponential moving average and continues to respect its long-term rising channel.
As long as the index holds above the 26,000–25,900 support band, the broader trend stays bullish. A decisive breakout above the 26,200–26,300 resistance zone could trigger fresh momentum toward 26,500–26,800, possibly early next year. Any short-term dip toward 25,800 is likely to attract buyers rather than spark panic selling.
Derivatives data: Range-bound cues
Open interest data suggests a cautious but stable sentiment in the derivatives segment. Heavy put writing around the 26,000 strike reinforces it as a near-term support, while call writing in the 26,200–26,300 zone is capping immediate upside.
This setup points to a range-bound market in the near term, with traders waiting for a clear breakout to signal the next directional move.
Bank Nifty: Strength intact above key support
The Bank Nifty ended Friday’s session at 59,011 and continues to hold above its rising channel and major moving averages. Analysts believe that sustaining above the 58,800–59,000 zone keeps the outlook constructive.
If momentum improves, the index could head toward 60,000–60,500, supported by expectations of steady credit growth and comfortable liquidity. A break below 58,000–58,500 may signal short-term weakness, though the broader uptrend remains intact.
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The bottom line
For now, the Indian market appears to be catching its breath near record levels rather than showing signs of fatigue. With key supports holding firm, traders may continue to adopt a buy-on-dips approach, while waiting for clearer global and domestic cues to drive the next big move.
Disclaimer: Market views are based on analyst commentary and technical indicators. Investors are advised to consult certified financial experts before making investment decisions.
