The Union Budget 2026 is being presented under unusual circumstances, with Indian stock markets opening on a Sunday for a special trading session. While Budget Day is always volatile, the weekend timing adds another layer of complexity, especially for retail investors trying to make quick calls in a fast-moving market.
Market experts caution that the first reaction may not reflect the real impact of the Budget. Instead, it could be driven largely by sentiment and low liquidity, making prices jumpy and misleading.
Sunday trading could amplify volatility
According to Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, Budget Day is historically one of the most volatile sessions of the year. The Sunday setup, however, makes it even trickier.
“Budget Day is one of the most volatile days we see all year, so traders need to approach it with extreme caution,” Meena said. He explained that sharp, two-way moves often hurt retail traders, with prices swinging rapidly before any clear direction emerges.
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Stop-losses, he noted, are especially vulnerable on such days. “The market can whip aggressively in both directions before it even decides where it wants to go,” he added.
Institutions may stay cautious
One key concern is the absence of strong institutional participation. Large investors usually provide depth and stability on Budget Day, but a weekend session could keep many of them on the sidelines.
“Institutional players usually anchor the market on Budget Day, but a Sunday session may limit their participation,” Meena said. “Without that liquidity, the order book can turn thin and highly erratic.”
As a result, early price action may be driven mostly by retail sentiment. “The initial move on Sunday could be nothing more than noise. The real, sustainable reaction is more likely on Monday, once institutions have gone through the fine print of the Budget,” he explained.
Key levels traders are watching
From a technical perspective, traders will keep a close eye on crucial support and resistance zones.
For the Nifty, immediate support is seen around 24,900, with a stronger base near 24,500. On the upside, resistance lies at 25,500 and 25,800.
Bank Nifty, which tends to react sharply to fiscal and interest rate cues, has support at 59,000 and 58,000, while resistance is placed near 60,600 and 61,800. Meena stressed that any meaningful breakout or breakdown will need strong volumes—something that may be missing during the Sunday session.
Sectors in focus
Sectorally, investors will be tracking areas closely linked to government spending and policy signals. Defence, infrastructure and power stocks often gain attention when capital expenditure is increased.
Financials and housing-related stocks could also see action, given their sensitivity to tax changes, credit incentives and commentary around interest rates.
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Caution may be the best strategy
Given the structure of this year’s Budget Day, experts suggest restraint. Meena believes traders should either keep positions very small on Sunday or avoid trading altogether.
In his view, Monday offers a far clearer picture. With institutional flows returning and the market fully digesting the Budget details, price action is likely to be more rational and trend-driven.
For investors, the message is simple: don’t rush. On a day like this, patience may matter more than timing.
