New Delhi: A possible US-led restructuring of Venezuela’s oil sector could bring an unexpected windfall for India, unlocking nearly $1 billion in long-pending dues and reviving crude production from oilfields operated by Indian firms in the sanctions-hit Latin American nation, analysts and industry sources say.
India was once among the world’s largest buyers of Venezuelan heavy crude, importing over 4 lakh barrels per day at its peak. That trade abruptly stopped in 2020 after sweeping US sanctions made transactions risky and, in many cases, impossible.
Read More :- Viral Claim Says Maduro Is in New York Jail After US Raid — No Official Confirmation Yet
Why Venezuela Matters to India’s Oil Story
India’s overseas oil arm, ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL), holds a 40% stake in the San Cristobal oilfield in eastern Venezuela. While the field is commercially viable, sanctions have blocked access to essential drilling equipment, technology, and services.
As a result, output has collapsed to just 5,000–10,000 barrels per day, a fraction of its potential.
More importantly, Venezuela owes OVL about $536 million in unpaid dividends up to 2014. A similar amount is stuck for later years, largely because audits have not been allowed—effectively freezing settlements.
Sanctions Relief Could Change the Game
Industry watchers believe the situation could shift if US sanctions are eased following Washington’s dramatic intervention and increased oversight of Venezuela’s oil assets after the removal of President Nicolás Maduro.
If restrictions lift, OVL could move drilling rigs—some similar to those used by parent Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) in Gujarat—to Venezuela and ramp up production.
Officials familiar with the field say San Cristobal alone could produce 80,000 to 1,00,000 barrels per day with better equipment and more wells.
More Fields, More Opportunities
India also has exposure to another major asset—the Carabobo-1 heavy oil block. OVL holds 11%, while Indian Oil Corporation and Oil India Ltd own 3.5% each. Venezuela’s state oil firm Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PdVSA) is the majority partner.
Analysts expect PdVSA to undergo restructuring. Even if its stake changes hands, international partners—including OVL and Spain’s Repsol—are likely to remain involved.
Indian Refineries Are Ready
Indian refiners are well-equipped to handle Venezuela’s heavy crude. Companies like Reliance Industries, Nayara Energy, IOC, HPCL-Mittal Energy and Mangalore Refinery have the complexity needed to process these grades efficiently.
“India is diversifying its crude basket—not just away from Russian oil, but also to manage geopolitical risks,” said Nikhil Dubey, Senior Research Analyst at Kpler. “If sanctions ease, Venezuelan barrels could quickly return to Indian refineries.”
Before sanctions, Venezuela exported 707 million barrels annually. By 2025, that figure has nearly halved, with China emerging as the largest buyer. A US-backed reset could rebalance these flows—and reopen doors for India.
Bigger Picture: Energy Security and Geopolitics
For India, renewed access to Venezuelan crude would mean more than just cheaper oil. It would reduce dependence on Middle Eastern supplies, improve bargaining power on prices, and cushion the economy against global shocks.
For Washington, analysts say control over Venezuelan oil aligns with US President Donald Trump’s broader push for energy independence and reduced reliance on OPEC producers.
If Venezuelan supply returns under US oversight, global oil prices could stabilise—though not fall too sharply, as that would hurt US shale producers.
Read more :- ‘Deep Concern’: India Urges Dialogue After US Action in Venezuela, Reports of Maduro’s Capture
What Happens Next?
Legal disputes, decaying infrastructure, and regulatory uncertainty remain real hurdles. But experts say these challenges are manageable under a US-backed framework that brings capital, technology, and operational discipline.
As one former oil executive put it: “Indian refineries are structurally built for Venezuelan crude. If production rises and payments normalise, trade can restart almost overnight.”
For India, that could mean a billion-dollar recovery—and a stronger hand in the global energy game.
