The Indian stock market is expected to open flat on Monday, January 12, after five straight sessions of losses, as investors stay cautious amid global uncertainty, rising gold prices, and fresh geopolitical tensions involving Iran.
Early signals from Gift Nifty suggest a muted opening for benchmark indices. Gift Nifty was trading around the 25,796 mark, a modest premium of about 8 points over the previous Nifty futures close, pointing to a sideways start.
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Market Mood: Cautious, Defensive, and Selective
Last week was rough for Dalal Street. Persistent foreign fund outflows, concerns over potential US tariff moves, and nervousness ahead of the upcoming results season kept buyers on the back foot.
On Friday, benchmarks extended their losing streak:
- Sensex slipped 604.72 points (0.72%) to close at 83,576.24
- Nifty 50 fell 193.55 points (0.75%) to end at 25,683.30
With global cues still weak and safe-haven assets like gold seeing renewed interest, traders are expected to remain selective rather than aggressive.
Sensex Outlook: Key Supports in Focus
Technically, Sensex continues to show signs of short-term consolidation with a bearish bias.
According to Aakash Shah of Choice Equity Broking, immediate resistance lies at 84,100, followed by 84,400, where selling pressure is likely to increase. On the downside, the 83,100–83,000 zone is a crucial support area and could attract some positional buying.
The index needs to reclaim resistance levels convincingly to bring bulls back into the game. Until then, the tone remains cautious.
Nifty OI Data: Resistance Still Strong
Derivative data continues to signal a defensive setup.
Ponmudi R of Enrich Money noted that for the January 13 weekly expiry, heavy Call writing is seen at the 26,000 strike with open interest of nearly ₹26.65 crore, marking it as a strong resistance zone. Put writing stands near ₹12.90 crore, suggesting limited but selective downside protection.
Overall, options data points to a range-bound to mildly bearish bias unless short covering emerges above key resistance levels.
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Nifty 50 Technical View: More Weakness Possible
Nifty 50 ended last week down 2.45%, forming a bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart—never a comforting sign.
Nagaraj Shetti from HDFC Securities said the formation of long bearish candles on both daily and weekly charts indicates a sharp reversal after weeks of consolidation. A decisive break below 25,700 could drag the index towards 25,400 in the coming days, while 25,900 remains immediate resistance.
Nilesh Jain of Centrum Broking added that Nifty faced stiff resistance near its 50-day moving average around 25,960. The next crucial support sits near the 100-DMA at 25,540. As long as this holds, a short-term pullback can’t be ruled out—but momentum indicators flashing sell signals keep the broader outlook weak.
Adding to the caution, India VIX jumped 16% last week, closing near 11, hinting at rising volatility.
Bank Nifty: Range-Bound, But Fragile
Bank Nifty underperformed as well, ending Friday down 434.95 points (0.73%) at 59,251.55. The index formed a bearish candle near the upper Bollinger Band, signaling rejection from higher levels.
According to Bajaj Broking, Bank Nifty is likely to consolidate in the 58,800–60,400 range. Immediate support lies between 59,000 and 58,700, a key zone due to the confluence of the 50-day EMA and last month’s low.
Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities echoed similar views, stating that holding above the 59,000–58,750 band is crucial to stabilise near-term momentum. On the upside, 59,600–59,700 remains a strong resistance pocket.
What Traders Should Watch Today
With global tensions simmering, gold on the rise, and volatility picking up, the market mood remains fragile. Traders may prefer a wait-and-watch approach, focusing on key support levels rather than chasing momentum.
As things stand, Monday’s session is likely to be more about capital protection than aggressive bets.
