The benchmark Sensex and Nifty indexes are expected to open moderately higher on November 2 as trends in the GIFT Nifty show a 35-point rise for the broader index.
The BSE Sensex fell 284 points to 63,591, while the Nifty50 fell 90 points to 18,989, forming a bearish candlestick pattern with lower top and lower bottom formation on the daily charts. The momentum indicator RSI is also indicating a downward trend ahead of the weekly F&O expiry.
“Technically, this pattern suggests the emergence of selling pressure following the reasonable upside bounce, as well as the formation of a lower top around 19,230 levels.” However, the selling impetus appears to have slowed recently, as we have seen weakening with rangebound activity in the previous few days,” said Nagaraj Shetti, technical research analyst at HDFC Securities.
He believes the Nifty will fall down to the lower support level of 18,850 (200-day EMA) before resuming its upward trend from the lows. Any intra-week rally from there might run into resistance around the 19,100 mark, according to him.
According to the pivot point calculator, the Nifty may find support at 18,973, followed by 18,944 and 18,897. On the upside, 19,066 may be the first point of resistance, followed by 19,095 and 19,142.
GIFT Nifty
With a rise of 35 points, the GIFT Nifty predicts a somewhat favorable start for the wider market. The GIFT Nifty futures contract closed at 19,220 points after reaching a high of 19,227 points.
US Markets
The S&P 500 futures edged up Wednesday night as investors moved their attention away from the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and toward the latest round of corporate earnings releases. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both climbed by around 0.2 percent. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 30 points, or almost 0.1 percent.
SolarEdge fell more than 18% after reporting an unexpected loss and providing bleak revenue projections for the fourth quarter. DoorDash rose more than 7% on profits that exceeded Wall Street expectations, while Etsy slumped 5% as management warned of a difficult environment for consumer discretionary spending.
The changes come after a successful day on Wall Street, which also marked the start of a new trading month. The Dow gained more than 200 points on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also gained more than 1%.
Markets in Europe
European markets were up on Wednesday, as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve’s next interest rate announcement. Despite its worst monthly performance since September 2022, the Stoxx 600 index ended 0.7 percent higher, maintaining positive momentum from the start of the week.
Retail stocks rose 1.8 percent after the United Kingdom’s Next raised its earnings forecast for the fourth time in six months. Meanwhile, Aston Martin shares fell as much as 13% after the premium carmaker reported a larger-than-expected quarterly loss and reduced its production forecast.
Asian Economies
The S&P 500 futures edged up Wednesday night as investors moved their attention away from the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and toward the latest round of corporate earnings releases. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both climbed by around 0.2 percent. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 30 points, or almost 0.1 percent.
SolarEdge fell more than 18% after reporting an unexpected loss and providing bleak revenue projections for the fourth quarter. DoorDash rose more than 7% on profits that exceeded Wall Street expectations, while Etsy slumped 5% as management warned of a difficult environment for consumer discretionary spending.
The changes come after a successful day on Wall Street, which also marked the start of a new trading month. The Dow gained more than 200 points on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also gained more than 1%.
The Nikkei 225 in Japan started 1.22 percent higher. The Topix gained 0.95 percent, reaching new three-week highs. The Kospi in South Korea climbed 1.62 percent, while the Kosdaq gained 2.10 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures were at 17,157, indicating a stronger open compared to the HSI’s finish of 17,101.78. The S&P/ASX 200 index in Australia climbed 1.17 percent, approaching its highest level in over two weeks.
GST receipts hit a new record of Rs 1.72 lakh crore in October, up 13% year on year.
The government’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) receipts increased 13 percent year on year in October to Rs 1.72 lakh crore, the Ministry of Finance reported on November 1.
“GST revenue collected in October 2023 is the second highest ever, following only April 2023.” Domestic transaction income (including imports of services) is up 13% year on year. “The average gross monthly GST collection in FY 2023-24 is now Rs 1.66 lakh crore, an increase of 11% year on year,” the finance ministry stated in a statement.
The October GST collection is 5.71 percent more than the September collection, at Rs 1.72 lakh crore. This is the ninth month in a row that monthly GST collection has exceeded Rs 1.5 lakh crore.
The rupee slipped 9 paise to an all-time low of 83.33 versus the US dollar.
On Wednesday, the rupee fell 9 paise to an all-time low of 83.33 (provisional) versus the US dollar, mirroring a strong greenback against key competitors worldwide and continuous foreign capital outflows. Furthermore, a downward trend in local stocks and rising crude oil prices amid geopolitical instability in the Middle East weighed on investor morale, according to FX dealers.
The rupee opened at 83.26 versus the dollar on the interbank foreign exchange market. It reached an intraday low of 83.35 and a high of 83.26 versus the US dollar during the trading session. The local currency eventually finished at a lifetime low of 83.33 (provisional), down 9 paise from its previous level.
The rupee closed at 83.24 versus the US dollar on Tuesday. “Amid geopolitical concerns regarding the Middle East, we believe the rupee to trade with a slightly negative outlook against the strong dollar.” The rupee may suffer from a weak tone in domestic markets.
“Traders may be influenced by manufacturing PMI data from India as well as ADP non-farm employment, JOLTS job opening, and ISM manufacturing PMI data from the United States.” Investors may stay cautious ahead of tonight’s FOMC meeting. The USD/INR spot price is projected to trade around the Rs 83-83.60 band, according to Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas. Meanwhile, the dollar index, measuring the US currency’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was 0.20 percent up at 106.87.
According to Rakesh Sharma of Bajaj car, the top half of the car sector outpaces the lower half by 2-2.5x.
In terms of growth, the top half of the sector is surpassing the bottom half by 2-2.5x, according to Rakesh Sharma, Executive Director, Bajaj Auto, in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
On October 18, Pune-based two-wheeler maker Bajaj Auto Ltd announced a 20% year-on-year (YoY) increase in net profit for the September quarter, totaling Rs 1,836.14 crore. In the previous quarter, it was Rs 1,530 crore.
“We are very closely floating over the number one position,” Sharma said of Bajaj Auto’s standing among Indian competitors.
“The industry is doing well, with growth ranging from 15% to 18%, and we are probably growing at twice the industry rate.” And we’re just halfway through the season,” the ED continued.
Wholesale sales are currently in the 4.5 lahks to 4.7 lakh range. “There is an upswing which has been sparked by the festive, and it probably, but in terms of entrance, I don’t think that there will be a rise, so the 65000 may go up to 75000 – 78,000 units.”
Indraprastha Gas’s net profit increased by 30% to Rs 553 crore in the second quarter.
On November 1, Indraprastha Gas Ltd (IGL) announced a 29.5 percent rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 553 crore for the second quarter of fiscal year 2023-24. In the previous fiscal year, the municipal gas distribution firm had a net profit of Rs 427 crore. According to an exchange statement by Indraprastha Gas, net profit improved slightly on a quarterly basis, with the business recording a profit of Rs 522 crore in the quarter ended June 30.
The company’s income from operations was Rs 3,822.53 crore in the quarter under review, a decrease from Rs 3,922 crore at the same time last year. The board of directors of the firm also announced an interim dividend of Rs 4 per share, with a face value of Rs 2 per share.
Sun Pharma’s second-quarter net profit increased by 5% to Rs 2375 crore, exceeding expectations.
Sun Pharma reported a 5% year-on-year increase in overall net profit to Rs 2,375.5 crore for the July-September quarter of the current fiscal year, exceeding expectations.
In the same time last year, the business posted a profit of Rs 2,262.22 crore. Revenue was Rs 12,192 crore, up 11.3 percent from Rs 10,952.3 crore in the previous quarter. According to a Moneycontrol survey of ten brokerages, net profit was Rs 2,316.7 crore and revenue was Rs 12,047.6 crore.
Ambuja Cements’ second-quarter net profit more than triples to Rs 793 crore.
Ambuja Cements recorded a consolidated net profit of Rs 792.96 crore, up 750.99 percent – almost ninefold – from Rs 93.18 crore in the same quarter the previous year, owing to greater other income and lower expenditures.
The Adani Group firm stated in an exchange statement that its operating income was Rs 7,423.95 crore, up 4.10 percent from Rs 7,131.39 crore in the same period the previous year. The firm said that its EBITDA was Rs 1,302 crore (up Rs 975 crore), driven by “operational excellence and cost-cutting projects.” The EBITDA margin increased by 12.9 percentage points, from 4.6 to 17.5 percent.
“Along with a high demand for our premium cement products, our company’s performance has improved due to excellent operations, supply chain management and sales & marketing excellence, adjacency benefits with Group companies, and reduced input costs which is boosting EBITDA & margin growth,” said Ajay Kapur, Full-Time Director and Chief Executive Officer Cements, in a statement.
Oil Costs
Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday, ahead of crucial meetings of global central banks this week, including the US Federal Reserve, as the market kept a tight eye on the latest developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
After losing more than 1% on Tuesday, Brent January crude futures climbed 2.3 percent, or $1.97, to $86.99 per barrel. Brent December futures finished 4 cents down at $87.41 a barrel on Tuesday, the contract’s expiration date. After dropping approximately 1.6 percent the previous day, US West Texas Intermediate oil futures rose 2.6 percent, or $2.08, to $83.10 per barrel.
The Dollar Index
In futures trading, the Dollar index was 0.30 percent higher at 106.96, while the value of one dollar was close to Rs 83.27.
Gold Rates
Gold remained flat on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with all eyes on Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later in the day for direction on the Fed’s rate path. The spot price of gold stayed unchanged at $1,986.19 per ounce. Gold futures in the United States rose 0.06 percent to $1,955.5.
Bullion prices have retreated after breaking above the $2,000 barrier last week, aided by strong safe-haven inflows due to rising upheaval in the Middle East, allowing it to post its greatest monthly gain since March in October.
According to Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank’s director of commodities strategy, this is merely a long-overdue correction after a very strong gain over the last three weeks, and prices might fall to at least $1,952.
“Although no change in interest rates is expected, the focus will be on the Fed’s assessment of the US economy and clues to monetary policy going forward,” said Praveen Singh, associate vice president at BNP Paribas Sharekhan.
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The FIIs and DIIs
On November 1, foreign institutional investors sold shares worth Rs 1,816.91 crore, while domestic institutional investors purchased equities worth Rs 1,622.05 crore, according to preliminary data from the National Stock Exchange.
